Politics

OIL SLIDES BELOW $104 AS TRADERS WEIGH MIDEAST RISK, WEAKER DEMAND

Gary FranchiSeptember 25, 202671 views
Oil prices fluctuate amid Mideast conflicts and shifting global demand dynamics.
Oil prices fluctuate amid Mideast conflicts and shifting global demand dynamics. | Next News Editorial Illustration
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Oil prices extended their decline on Friday, with Brent crude trading below $104 a barrel, according to market data circulated by the financial newswire account @FirstSquawk. The drop follows a volatile week in which Brent briefly held above $102 before reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure renewed supply concerns.

The @FirstSquawk post, published at 16:05 UTC, stated simply: "OIL EXTENDS DECLINE, BRENT TRADES BELOW $104 A BARREL." The account, which tracks commodity and energy markets, did not provide further detail on the volume or cause of the move in that post.

The decline comes after a week in which Brent had been set for a weekly gain, according to energy news outlet OilPrice.com, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia offset hopes for a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That report, published eleven hours before the @FirstSquawk post, described the market as caught between competing pressures: geopolitical risk on one side, diplomatic progress on the other.

Those diplomatic hopes were complicated by Iran's conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz. OilPrice.com reported one day earlier that Brent held above $102 as Iran talks stalled over Hormuz conditions, with Iran's demands and Trump administration threats at the United Nations keeping crude above $100 and up sixty percent for the year. That same report noted oil dipped on signs of peace talks, but the Hormuz demands prevented a sharper selloff.

Earlier in the week, oil prices had declined in early Asian trading on Thursday, reversing some of the previous session's gains. According to coverage from the same period, Brent crude fell zero point nine percent to US$102.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate also moved lower. The @FirstSquawk post Friday indicates that decline has continued, with Brent now trading below $104 — a level that represents a modest recovery from the $102 range but still well below the week's earlier highs.

The broader financial picture adds context. The S&P 500 rose and headed for a winning week despite a surge in Treasury yields, according to live market updates published eighteen hours before the @FirstSquawk post. That report described Wall Street wrapping up a volatile week of trading, with a surge in Treasury yields rippling through financial markets. The combination of rising yields and falling oil suggests investors are weighing concerns about economic growth alongside energy supply risks.

Analysts following the oil market have pointed to several factors shaping the short-term outlook. LiteFinance published a price forecast and analysis for USCrude covering today, tomorrow, next week, and thirty days, noting key levels, sentiment, and events shaping the short-term outlook. That analysis, published one day before the @FirstSquawk post, did not predict the specific decline but highlighted the market's sensitivity to both geopolitical developments and demand signals.

The Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure remain a central factor. OilPrice.com reported that Brent was set for a weekly gain as those attacks rattled Saudi oil supply. The attacks, which have targeted Saudi energy assets, represent an ongoing risk to global supply chains and have kept a floor under prices even as demand concerns mount.

At the same time, the prospect of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has provided a counterweight. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, and any agreement that reduces tensions there would likely ease supply concerns and push prices lower. But Iran's conditions for talks — which reportedly include demands related to the strait — have stalled progress, according to OilPrice.com.

The Trump administration's posture at the United Nations has added another layer of uncertainty. OilPrice.com reported that Trump's UN threats were among the factors keeping Brent above $100. The nature of those threats was not detailed in the report, but they contributed to a risk premium that has kept prices elevated despite diplomatic signals.

For American consumers and businesses, the decline below $104 a barrel offers modest relief at the pump, though prices remain significantly higher than a year ago. The sixty percent year-to-date gain reported by OilPrice.com underscores how far crude has risen in 2026, driven by a combination of supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and what analysts describe as tight global inventories.

The @FirstSquawk post did not specify what drove Friday's decline. Markets can move on a range of factors, including positioning ahead of the weekend, algorithmic trading, and reactions to headlines not captured in the post itself. The account's brief format — a single sentence in all caps — is typical of financial newswires that prioritize speed over explanation.

Next News Network could not independently verify the specific price level cited in the @FirstSquawk post or the underlying market conditions described in the accompanying coverage.

What is clear from the available reporting is that oil markets remain volatile, caught between supply risks from Houthi attacks and diplomatic hopes tied to Iran. The decline below $104 a barrel marks a continuation of that volatility, not a resolution of it. Traders will be watching for further developments on the Strait of Hormuz, any new attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and signals from the Trump administration's UN diplomacy.

For now, the market's direction remains uncertain. The @FirstSquawk post captured a moment — oil extending its decline — but the broader forces at work suggest that moment could reverse as quickly as it arrived.

Our Take

The drop below $104 a barrel is being framed by some in the financial press as a sign that geopolitical tensions are easing. That framing is premature at best. The same reporting that notes the decline also notes that Iran's Hormuz demands have stalled talks, that Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue, and that the Trump administration is issuing threats at the United Nations. Those are not the ingredients of a stable oil market. They are the ingredients of a market that could spike at any moment.

Conservatives should be skeptical of any narrative that treats a single day's price move as evidence that the world is calming down. The underlying risks — a hostile Iran, a proxy war in Yemen, a vulnerable chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz — have not gone anywhere. If anything, they have intensified. The decline below $104 may simply reflect traders taking profits or repositioning ahead of the weekend, not a genuine shift in the strategic picture.

The real story here is that American energy consumers remain exposed to decisions made in Tehran, Riyadh, and Sanaa. That is a direct consequence of decades of policies that discouraged domestic production and prioritized green energy fantasies over energy independence. The Trump administration's willingness to confront Iran at the UN is a step in the right direction, but it does not change the fundamental vulnerability.

Until the United States fully unleashes its own energy sector, the price at the pump will continue to be set by forces beyond our control. A brief dip below $104 is not a victory. It is a reminder of how much work remains.

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Gary Franchi
Gary Franchi

Chief White House Correspondent at Next News Network. Executive Producer and Lead Anchor.

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