Republicans have flooded the Texas Senate race with more than $100 million in a matter of weeks, racing to prop up their nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton, against Democratic challenger James Talarico.
According to the Washington Examiner, Texas PAC — an outside group linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) — has committed nearly $120 million to date, a figure that could rise as high as $200 million when all is said and done.
CBS Texas reported Friday that $119 million had been spent or reserved for TV and digital ads, up from $51 million just one week earlier. When spending from Lone Star Liberty PAC and MAGA, Inc. — President Trump's super PAC — is added, total spending in the race tops $155 million.
Thune, asked about the eye-popping number on Wednesday, didn't flinch.
"I think he can win, and I think he will win," Thune said. "But it is going to be expensive, and we knew that going in. That's no surprise to anybody. Texas has 20 media markets thereabouts, and I think it's on the order of $8 million a week or thereabouts to run TV ads in the state of Texas. So, we expected it to be expensive."
The spending surge comes as Republicans grow increasingly anxious that Texas — a state President Trump won by double digits in 2024 — has become a must-defend battleground. According to America First Report, three Trump-aligned groups — MAGA Inc., the No Going Back PAC and the Safety and Affordability PAC — have spent more than $163 million on advertising since Sept. 1, with nearly 40% of that cash dumped into states and districts Trump carried by at least ten points.
In Ohio, the most expensive Senate race in the country, Republicans have spent over $152 million defending Sen. Jon Husted against former Sen. Sherrod Brown. No Going Back PAC has announced $49 million in ads across seven races, including $15 million in Michigan, $11 million in Ohio, $10 million in New Hampshire and $4 million in Maine.
The Paxton spending comes as new polling shows the race tightening. Two new surveys cited by the Washington Examiner show Talarico's lead over Paxton falling by one point, with fewer undecided voters left to sway.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who was defeated by Paxton in the GOP primary runoff in May, was asked last week about the Senate Leadership Fund spending more than $100 million on his former rival. His answer was less than enthusiastic.
"I think it's reasonable to say that unless the numbers start changing in Texas, that maybe that money would be redirected," Cornyn said. "Again, that's not my decision."
Reporters also asked Cornyn whether President Trump is making it easier or harder for Thune to win the Senate. Cornyn replied: "Harder." When asked how much harder on a scale of one to ten, Cornyn said "Ten" before the elevator door closed.
CBS Texas confirmed a New York Times report that Cornyn held fundraisers for six Republican senators and candidates in Texas last week — a list that did not include Paxton. A source familiar with Cornyn's political operation told CBS Texas that he and former President George W. Bush helped raise money in Dallas on Monday.
Our Take
Let's be clear about what's happening here: the Republican establishment is spending nine figures to save a candidate it spent the entire primary trying to destroy.
Ken Paxton is a fighter. He's been Trump's most reliable ally in Texas, he took on the Biden regime's open-border policies, he sued the federal government when it overreached, and he won. That's exactly why the Deep State and its allies in the Texas GOP establishment wanted him gone. They threw everything they had at him in the primary. He won anyway.
Now, with James Talarico — a self-described progressive who wants to turn Texas into California — surging in the polls, the same establishment that tried to bury Paxton is suddenly writing seven-figure checks to save him. Funny how that works.
And what does Cornyn do? He holds fundraisers for everyone except Paxton.
The money matters. Texas has 20 media markets, and Talarico is well-funded and rising in the polls. If Republicans lose Texas, they can kiss any hope of a Senate majority goodbye. The stakes couldn't be higher.
But here's the question every Texas voter should be asking: if the GOP establishment is this reluctant to support the man on their own ticket, how hard will they fight for him once he's in Washington?
The cavalry has arrived. But for how long — and at what cost — remains a fight only Paxton's supporters can finish in November.
