A new Fox News statewide survey of Iowa likely voters shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, 49% to 47%, according to the poll released Tuesday. The two-point margin falls well within the survey's margin of error, leaving the contest statistically tied.
Among registered voters, Turek's advantage grows to four points, 50% to 46%, also within sampling error. Fox News reports the numbers have been unchanged since the network's June survey of the race.
The seat is open following the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs, faces Hinson, who represents Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. Both are running in primary contests scheduled for June 2, 2026, according to Ballotpedia.
Democrats More Unified Than Republicans
Fox News reports that Democrats are more unified behind Turek — 96% support him — than Republicans are behind Hinson, at 87%. Independents favor Turek by a two-to-one margin, and 10% of Republicans say they back the Democrat.
Iowa voters are nearly split on which party should control the Senate: 49% prefer Democratic control, 48% favor Republican control, according to the poll.
Turek leads by 11 points among women, 16 points in the suburbs, 17 points among voters with a college degree, and 32 points among independents. Hinson holds a 7-point edge among men, 6 points among those without a college degree, 14 points among rural voters, and 41 points among white evangelical Christians.
Cost of Living Dominates
Economic pressure is shaping the race. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 3 in 10 Iowans described their families as falling behind financially. That figure has risen to 4 in 10 today, and Fox News reports they back Turek by a 38-point margin. Those holding steady (45%) and getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson by 14 and 53 points respectively.
Six in 10 Iowa voters say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote decision. That outpaces other issues including President Donald Trump (43% extremely important), immigration (39%), and AI technology (27%).
Hinson appeared on Fox News' "America Reports" to discuss how inflation and the rising cost of living are shaping the race, according to Fox News.
Hinson Campaign Focuses on Turek's Voting Record
Hinson has repeatedly criticized Turek over missed votes in the Iowa House during the 2026 legislative session. PolitiFact Iowa reported Tuesday that it verified Hinson's claim that Turek skipped 58% of Statehouse votes this year.
According to PolitiFact Iowa, of the 445 votes held on the Iowa House floor during the Jan. 12 to April 2 session, Turek missed 261 — roughly 58%. The number applies only to House floor votes, not committee or subcommittee votes. Turek had the second-most absences of any member in the Iowa House during the 2026 session, according to KTIV.
"Even going back a few years, there's very few candidates that I can find that ran for higher office and missed as many [votes] as he did," Kedron Bardwell, a Simpson College professor of political science, told PolitiFact Iowa.
Bardwell noted that while some absences are not uncommon for candidates on the campaign trail, Turek's rate far exceeds the typical 20% to 30% seen among other representatives.
Jack Hunt, editor and publisher of the Iowa Legislative News Service with 30 years covering the Statehouse, told PolitiFact that a large number of absences are not unexpected for a candidate running for higher office.
Our Take
Patriots, let's be clear about what this poll actually tells us. A two-point lead for a Democrat in a Fox News poll of Iowa — within the margin of error — is not a mandate. It's a warning shot. And the warning isn't about Ashley Hinson. It's about the cost of living crushing families across the heartland.
Four in 10 Iowans say they're falling behind financially. Those voters are breaking for the Democrat by 38 points. That's not a vote against Hinson. That's a cry for help from people who can't afford groceries, can't afford gas, and can't afford to wait for Washington to get its act together. This is exactly the kind of kitchen-table anger that fueled President Trump's 2024 comeback. Republicans who ignore it do so at their own peril.
The good news for Hinson: she has a real contrast to draw. Turek missed 58% of Statehouse votes this year. He skipped more votes than nearly anyone in the Iowa House. If you can't show up to do your job in Des Moines, why should Iowans send you to Washington? That's a message that should resonate with every voter who's tired of politicians collecting a paycheck while doing nothing.
But Republicans need to wake up. Independents are breaking two-to-one for Turek. Suburban women are fleeing. Ten percent of Republicans are backing the Democrat. Those are not numbers that win elections. They're numbers that lose them.
Iowans don't want a lecture on party loyalty. They want lower prices, a secure border, and a government that stops wasting their money. If Hinson and national Republicans can't make that case — and make it fast — Iowa's Senate seat could flip. And a two-point lead today can become a five-point loss in November.
What do you think, folks? Can Hinson turn this around, or is Iowa slipping away? Let us know in the comments.
