A new Fox News poll released Wednesday shows the Michigan Senate race has tightened to a virtual dead heat, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holding a slim 1-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters, 50 percent to 49 percent.
The survey is the first Fox News poll this season to sample likely voters rather than registered voters, meaning a direct comparison to earlier surveys is not possible. Among registered voters, the preference is nearly identical, with El-Sayed at 51 percent and Rogers at 48 percent — a reversal from August, when Rogers led by 4 points among that group, 51 percent to 47 percent.
El-Sayed's backers appear more locked in. According to the Fox News poll, 87 percent of his supporters say they are certain of their choice, compared to 80 percent of Rogers' supporters. Overall, 15 percent of voters say they could still switch their pick before casting a ballot — including 18 percent of Rogers' supporters and 12 percent of El-Sayed's.
Favorable ratings for both candidates remain close, with 47 percent viewing El-Sayed positively compared to 44 percent for Rogers. Among registered voters, positive views of El-Sayed have increased by 5 points since August, while Rogers' have declined by 4 points.
Demographics Tell Two Different Stories
The poll shows El-Sayed performing strongest with groups that traditionally lean Democratic: women, Black voters, and those with a college degree. He also leads among voters under 45 and holds an edge with the small subgroup of union households.
Rogers draws his strongest support from men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters, and Whites without a college degree.
Both candidates enjoy near-universal backing within their own parties. Rogers receives 95 percent support among Republicans, while El-Sayed garners 93 percent among Democrats. Rogers takes 99 percent of MAGA Republicans and 88 percent of non-MAGA Republicans. El-Sayed captures 98 percent of DSA Democrats and 90 percent of non-DSA Democrats. The small number of independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.
The Fox News poll also found that the political environment favors Democrats this cycle, with the party holding a 5-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control Congress.
Conflicting Polls Paint Uncertain Picture
The Fox News survey is not the only recent poll showing El-Sayed ahead, though others have shown larger margins. A Marist poll conducted September 24–27 among 1,235 registered voters found El-Sayed leading Rogers 51 percent to 44 percent — a 7-point advantage, which Newsweek reported is the largest lead El-Sayed has held since the campaign began in April 2025. The Marist poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Earlier surveys have shown varying results. A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey from August found El-Sayed ahead 46 percent to 39 percent among 800 likely voters. A Suffolk University Boston poll conducted September 16–20 showed El-Sayed leading 47 percent to 40 percent among 500 likely voters.
Rogers has led in some polls as well. The Fox News poll from August showed him ahead by 4 points among registered voters before the latest survey showed that lead erased.
What's at Stake
Michigan's Senate seat is open following Senator Gary Peters' surprise retirement. Republicans currently control the Senate with a 53-47 majority, and Democrats are hoping to flip the seat as part of their effort to reclaim the chamber in the midterms.
El-Sayed, a progressive candidate, has campaigned on Medicare for All, taxing billionaire wealth, and environmental protections. Rogers, a former congressman, has positioned himself as a conservative voice focused on border security, economic growth, and standing against the progressive agenda.
Mark Penn, a former Clinton advisor and pollster, appeared on Fox News to discuss the latest election polling data, analyzing shifting voter sentiment and key economic concerns shaping the electorate.
Our Take
Here's what the legacy media won't tell you plainly: a 1-point lead in a Fox News poll is not a mandate, and El-Sayed knows it. His supporters are more certain of their choice, but that's cold comfort when nearly one in five Rogers voters say they could still be persuaded. In a state like Michigan, where the margin between victory and defeat has been razor-thin in recent cycles, those undecided voters are the whole ballgame.
The polls show a race that is genuinely fluid. Rogers led among registered voters in August. Now he trails by 3 points with that group and 1 point among likely voters. That's a swing that should concern Republicans — but it's also a swing that can swing back. The Marist poll showing El-Sayed up 7 is an outlier compared to Fox News and the earlier Susquehanna and Suffolk surveys. Anyone treating that Marist number as gospel is either fooling themselves or trying to fool you.
What matters now is turnout. El-Sayed's base — young voters, college graduates, union households — typically underperforms on Election Day. Rogers' coalition of rural voters, evangelicals, and married voters tends to show up. If the Rogers campaign can lock down that 18 percent who are still shopping around, and if the national environment continues to tighten as voters get a closer look at what a Senator El-Sayed would actually mean for Michigan, this race is eminently winnable.
The question is whether Michigan Republicans will do the work to close the deal. The Democrats and their allies in the media will throw everything they have at Rogers between now and November. They'll call him an extremist, they'll dig up opposition research, they'll flood the airwaves with attack ads. That's what they do.
But Michiganders are smarter than the Left gives them credit for. They know what's at stake: a Senate seat that could determine the balance of power in Washington. They know El-Sayed's brand of socialism isn't what this state needs. The poll numbers show a close race — now it's up to the voters to decide which direction Michigan goes.
One point. That's the margin between keeping Michigan red and handing it to the progressive Left. Patriots, the time to act is now.
