AUSTIN, Texas — The Texas Senate race is officially a coin flip. A new Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico deadlocked at 49% each among likely Texas voters, erasing a two-point lead Talarico held last month and setting up a photo finish in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide in more than 30 years.
The survey, first reported by Fox News Politics, comes as the race to replace retiring Sen. John Cornyn — who lost the GOP primary to Trump-backed Paxton — has tightened dramatically. Talarico led 51%-49% in September; that advantage has vanished.
The shift reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and Republicans who backed Cornyn in the primary. Paxton has also strengthened his standing slightly among both men and women since last month, while Talarico lost a point among men and two among women.
But the Democrat still holds significant advantages in key blocs. Talarico leads by 65 points among Black voters, 29 among urban voters, 28 among those under 30, and 23 among women with college degrees. Paxton's strongest groups include white evangelical Christians (+52), white men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21), and seniors 65 and up (+18).
Perhaps most alarming for Republicans: Hispanic voters are swinging back toward Democrats. After backing Trump by one point in 2024 — a historic shift — Hispanics now favor Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefer Democratic control of the Senate by 29.
Overall, Texans still prefer Republican Senate control by four points (51%-47%), up from one point in September. But Talarico's stronger party loyalty — 98% of Democrats back him versus 90% of Republicans for Paxton — is keeping the race close. Nearly three in ten non-MAGA Republicans say they'll cross party lines for Talarico.
Democrats also hold an enthusiasm edge: 69% are extremely interested in the election versus 61% of Republicans. Extremely interested voters back Talarico by seven points.
The Fox News poll follows a University of Houston Hobby School survey released Tuesday showing Talarico up 48%-46% over Paxton, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3% and 3% undecided. That poll of 2,000 likely voters, conducted October 10-14 with a margin of error of ±2.9%, also found Talarico leading in favorability, 47%-41%.
Social media has been buzzing with the tightening race. An Instagram post from KXAN News highlighted the contest, while other posts referenced surveys from Texas Public Opinion and recent polling. The posts reflect growing national attention on a race that could determine Senate control.
Paxton's approval ratings remain underwater by 17 points, according to the Fox poll — a vulnerability Talarico is working to exploit. But Paxton's consolidation of the GOP base and Trump's endorsement are keeping him competitive.
With less than three weeks until Election Day, both campaigns are pouring resources into the Lone Star State. The question now: can Talarico turn Democratic enthusiasm and Hispanic support into a historic upset, or will Paxton's base hold firm and keep Texas red?
Our Take
Let's be clear about what this poll really says. The fact that a Democrat is tied with a Trump-backed Republican in Texas should terrify the GOP establishment — and it should also serve as a wake-up call for Paxton's campaign.
Texas hasn't gone blue statewide since 1994. But Democrats smell blood. Talarico is running as a fresh-faced progressive with deep pockets and a disciplined message, and the enthusiasm gap is real. Republicans cannot afford to be complacent.
Paxton, for his part, has been a loyal Trump ally and a fighter against the Deep State. But his favorability numbers are a drag, and the Hispanic swing back to Democrats is a warning sign. The GOP must make the case that Republican control of the Senate is the only thing standing between Texas and the radical Left's agenda.
Patriots, this is not a drill. The race is tied. If you live in Texas, vote. If you know someone in Texas, call them. The future of the Senate — and the country — may depend on it.
