The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday released the results of its 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a triennial snapshot of what American families actually own, owe, earn and save. The timing is brutal for Democrats: the report lands six days before a midterm election that has centered almost entirely on affordability, with consumer inflation at 3.7 percent in September and the Fed holding a scheduled rate meeting this week.
The SCF is the Fed's most detailed look at household balance sheets, covering income, net worth, debt and credit access across the country. The Board said the survey is intended to give both the public and policymakers a clearer picture of the economic condition of American families. What that picture shows is not the story the Biden administration spent four years telling.
Prices Are Still Crushing Households
According to data from the Labor Department, consumer prices rose 3.7 percent in September compared with a year ago, up from 3.4 percent in August. On a monthly basis, costs jumped 0.6 percent — the biggest increase in five months.
Gas prices illustrate the squeeze. AAA reported Tuesday that the average price for a gallon of regular was $4.27, down from $4.48 a month ago but far above the $3.05 national average at this time last year. The Conference Board's October survey, released Tuesday, showed its Consumer Confidence Index rising 7.5 points to 91.7 — but that follows a September reading of 84.2, the lowest since April 2014 and below the depths of the pandemic. The board's present-situation index climbed 6.9 points to 72.6, and the expectations index rose 8.6 points to 120.4, only partially reversing three straight months of decline.
Write-in responses to the Conference Board survey, collected October 1-21, remained broadly pessimistic. Fergus McCormick, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board, said consumers continued to express frustration with rising costs. "References to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices rose," McCormick said. He added that consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months, "likely reflecting higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers' purchasing power."
The Fed's Political Bind
The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter-point six weeks ago — its first hike since 2023 — lifting the key rate to about 3.9 percent. The central bank signaled another increase could come later this year, though a CNBC survey found 93 percent of respondents expect a pause at this week's meeting. Treasury yields ticked higher Tuesday as the two-day policy meeting got underway.
That leaves the Fed caught between stubborn inflation and a White House that has spent two years blaming its predecessor for the price pain. President Trump has repeatedly pointed to former President Joe Biden's spending record, but inflation has risen since Trump's second inauguration in January 2025 — a fact Democrats are already using on the campaign trail.
The SCF was previously used by the Biden administration to argue that household balance sheets were strong heading into the 2024 election. Republicans countered that those gains were inflated by pandemic-era stimulus and erased for working families by rising costs. The 2025 edition will now serve as the final economic scorecard before voters head to the polls — and both parties know it.
What the survey does not do is measure how families feel. That job fell to the Conference Board, and its findings were unambiguous: five years of elevated prices have left Americans flustered, even as the headline confidence number improved. Gas prices fell month-over-month, but they remain 40 percent higher than a year ago. Grocery bills are up. The Fed's own survey will show how much of the country's wealth is concentrated at the top, and how little cushion exists for the families caught in the middle.
Our Take
Here's what the establishment media won't tell you: the Fed's Survey of Consumer Finances exists to give policymakers an honest look at the American family's ledger. And the honest look, six days before a midterm election, is that the Biden-Harris economy broke the middle class — and the repair job under President Trump is still fighting headwinds created by years of reckless spending, open borders and a war on American energy.
Democrats will try to spin this report as proof the economy is fine. They'll point to rising confidence and falling gas prices. But confidence is still near pandemic lows, and gas at $4.27 is not relief — it's a ransom note. The Fed raised rates because inflation is still with us, not because the problem is solved. And every working family filling up a tank or buying groceries knows the truth better than any economist in Washington.
Republicans should take this report and hammer it home: the Deep State's economic managers spent four years telling you the numbers were good while your paycheck bought less. The SCF is the receipt. Now the question is whether voters will hold the people who wrote those checks accountable — or let the same crowd back in to do it again.
