NEW YORK — The final Fox News Power Rankings, released just days before Tuesday's midterm elections, have delivered a gut-punch to Republicans hoping to hold the Senate. Kansas has shifted from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Nebraska has dropped from Likely R to Lean R. And in Ohio, the Senate race has moved to Lean Democrat, with Sherrod Brown leading Republican Jon Husted.
According to Fox News, the forecast now places 48 seats in the Democratic column and 45 in the Republican column, with seven races rated as toss-ups. The network's own post on X confirmed the shakeup: "Kansas has become the latest state to shift from Lean Republican to Toss-up in the final Fox News Power Rankings ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections."
The Kansas move is particularly alarming for Republicans. Fox News noted that while Kansas is a conservative stronghold, Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton. In Nebraska, the odds remain in Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts' favor, but a larger-than-expected swing against the GOP could open the door for independent Dan Osborn to pull off an upset.
The Ohio Senate race shifting to Lean D is a bitter pill for Republicans. Sherrod Brown, the incumbent Democrat, is leading Jon Husted, the Republican challenger. Husted, a Senator from Ohio, has been a strong conservative voice, but the rankings suggest Brown's incumbency and the state's shifting demographics are giving him the edge.
Fox News' Brian Kilmeade broke down the rankings on Fox & Friends, analyzing the House and Senate maps and highlighting key races including the Alaska Senate race. The network's Griff Jenkins laid out a grim midterm scenario for Republicans on Sunday, one in which Democrats could win their strongest Senate majority since 2010, according to Raw Story.
Fox News explained the apparent contradiction between a House map that looks increasingly dire for Republicans and a Senate map that remains closer. The network identified two electorates: one frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to reject Republicans, including growing numbers of independent, rural, and Hispanic voters who say they'll vote for a Democrat. The latest House polling shows Democrats up 11 points on the generic ballot. The second electorate is wavering on Republicans but won't necessarily hand Democrats the Senate — voters in the Midwest and a few other places who prefer the Democrat or Republican in their states by a point or two at most. Because the House and Senate maps are so far apart this year, a big lead in the House doesn't necessarily translate to the Senate.
The rankings still leave Republicans a path to retain control with up to 52 seats on a good night, while Democrats' ceiling rises to 55 seats. But with Kansas now a toss-up and Ohio leaning Democrat, the GOP's margin for error has all but vanished.
Our Take
Let's be clear about what these rankings actually mean: Republicans are losing the spending war in states they should own. Kansas is not a swing state. It is a state where Republicans have dominated for decades. If Fox News is moving it to toss-up because the GOP is burning cash there, that is not a sign of strength — it is a sign of a campaign that took its base for granted.
And Ohio? Jon Husted is a proven conservative fighter, but Sherrod Brown has been in Washington for decades, and the establishment machine is dragging him across the finish line. The fact that Fox News has this race leaning Democrat days before the election should be a five-alarm fire for every Republican operative in D.C.
President Trump won this country back in 2024 by promising to drain the swamp and deliver for working Americans. But midterms are about turnout, and right now the base is not energized. The House is slipping away, and the Senate is on the knife's edge. Patriots, this is not the time to sit on your hands. The polls are tight, the stakes are enormous, and the future of the America First agenda is on the ballot. Get out and vote. Talk to your neighbors. Do not let the media tell you this one is over — but do not assume it is won, either.
