A veteran Democratic operative is openly predicting that Democrats could take full control of Congress on Tuesday — and he's crediting, in part, Republican candidate quality for the opening.
Dan Turrentine, a former chief of staff to current Colorado Gov. Jared Polis when Polis served in Congress, said on Fox News Politics that Democrats have a real shot at flipping the Senate five days out from the midterms. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority and are widely projected to lose their slim House majority.
"Five days out, Democrats have a pretty good chance to retake the Senate," Turrentine said. He hosts "The Huddle" podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer.
Turrentine pointed to North Carolina, where incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. The seat has long been red, but polls cited by Turrentine show former Gov. Roy Cooper holding a commanding lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.
He also flagged surprisingly close races in swing states like Ohio and Michigan, and in typically deep red states such as Texas, Kansas and Missouri. In Texas, Turrentine named Ken Paxton. In Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith. In Kansas, Roger Marshall. And in South Carolina, Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running to take the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.
"If Republicans lose the Senate, it's likely one of those four loses," Turrentine said. "While the president's standing is part of the problem, that last mile comes down to weak candidate quality."
Turrentine's assessment lands as Fox News also published a column by Schoen and Cooperman arguing that voters want to punish the GOP rather than hand Democrats a blank check. That column cites a nearly 9-point Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot, early voting numbers favoring Democrats, and President Trump's approval averaging just 38%. It also notes that in Texas, while Republicans cast 900,000 more votes than Democrats in 2022, Democrats cast 150,000 more this year — a 1.5 million vote swing.
Turrentine acknowledged that previous surveys have overstated support for his party. "Campaigns are terrified about polling," he said, adding that "reaching voters is harder than ever."
The comments amount to a Democratic operative telling his own side's story: the GOP's Senate majority is at risk, and candidate quality is a big reason why. For Republicans, the warning signs are piling up in states that should not be competitive.
Our Take
Here's the tell: a Democratic strategist is on Fox News naming the exact Republican candidates he thinks can lose winnable seats. Ken Paxton. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Roger Marshall. Darlene Graham Nordone. That's not a media narrative — that's a roadmap from the other side.
Republicans have a 53-47 majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, or three if they win the White House — and they don't have the White House. So every one of these races matters. And Turrentine is saying the quiet part out loud: the problem isn't just President Trump's standing or the generic ballot. It's the candidates.
That's a warning Republicans should take seriously. Candidate quality has cost the GOP before. It can cost them again. If Democrats take the Senate on Tuesday, the blame won't land on a poll or a media hit job. It will land on the seats Republicans refused to lock down.
Patriots, the Senate is the last line of defense against the radical Left's agenda. If Republicans lose it, there is no check on the Democrats' worst impulses. The question now is whether voters in Texas, Mississippi, Kansas and South Carolina show up to prove Turrentine wrong — or whether the GOP hands him the last laugh.
