National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) said Republicans will hold their Senate majority if GOP voters turn out Tuesday, and he predicted the party can also take seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.
Scott made the comments in an interview with host Matthew Boyle on Breitbart News Saturday, which airs on SiriusXM Patriot 125 from 10:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Eastern. The interview was reported by Breitbart and amplified Monday by Big League Politics.
Republicans currently hold the Senate 53-47. Democrats need four pickups, and they need to hold every seat they already have to take the majority. Scott said the party does not need an unusual result to keep the chamber — only its own voters showing up when polls open Tuesday.
"The most important thing for us to hold the majority is to trust the president when he says he's on the ballot. This midterm election is in fact about protecting the America we love. And that means if Republican voters vote, we win," Scott said.
Scott pointed to President Donald Trump's ability to generate Republican turnout in presidential elections and said the GOP must replicate that participation in the November 3 midterms.
"We just need Republican voters to do what we do when President Trump is on the ballot. He says there's a 49.2% increase in vote turnout. If we do our part, we win," Scott said.
Three Pickup Targets
The NRSC chairman named Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota as states Republicans can take from Democrats — three of the ten contests he placed on a toss-up map at the end of September, according to Breitbart.
In Ohio, Scott said Republican Sen. Jon Husted keeps meeting voters who will not speak to pollsters at all. Scott questioned whether traditional polling accurately captures Republican support.
"So how do you actually poll people who don't respond to pollsters? The answer is simple. You don't. And therefore, I think the polls are off. I think President Trump is right. And we are going to make sure that because America is on the ballot, patriots all across this country, including in Ohio, must come out and vote," Scott said.
Scott also invoked the president's message about the stakes of the midterms, emphasizing that Trump considers his political agenda to be at stake even though his name is not on the ballot. He described voting as a "team sport this cycle," encouraging Republicans to bring friends, neighbors, and family members to the polls.
"Your neighbors, your friends, your ugly relatives should go with you to vote," Scott said.
Texas Warning
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton warned on Saturday that Republicans cannot treat his state as safe, calling his Senate run the toughest of the 20 campaigns he has waged, according to Breitbart's account.
The Senate map gives Republicans room to play offense even as they defend a 53-seat majority. Flipping any of the three states Scott named would pad that margin; losing a single incumbent would narrow it to the point where a 50-50 chamber and a vice president's tie-breaking vote become the working assumption.
Scott's turnout argument rests on a simple asymmetry: Democratic-leaning voters who skip midterms are a known quantity, while Republican-leaning voters who only show up for Trump are the variable his committee is trying to solve. His answer is not persuasion but mobilization — treating the midterm as a referendum on the president's agenda and asking voters to act as if his name were on the ballot.
Whether that message lands will be measurable within hours of polls closing Tuesday. The NRSC chairman has now put his prediction on the record: if Republican voters do what they do in presidential years, the majority holds and three Democrat seats fall. If they stay home, nothing else in the party's planning matters.
Our Take
Scott is not promising a wave. He is promising arithmetic — and he is right to. The GOP's Senate firewall has never been about converting Democrats; it is about the roughly half of the Republican coalition that treats midterms as an off-year inconvenience. Trump's 49.2% turnout figure is the benchmark Scott is asking those voters to hit, and the states he named — Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota — are exactly where that math either closes or collapses.
The polling skepticism is well-earned. Voters who won't talk to a pollster are not a rounding error; they are a silent bloc that has broken Republican in race after race, and Scott is telling patriots to stop waiting for the models to catch up and just vote.
But a prediction is not a turnout operation. The committee can name three targets and cite a presidential-year number, but only voters can close the gap between the two. Tuesday is the test: do Republicans show up like Trump is on the ballot — or do they hand Democrats the four seats they need?
