Arizona Republicans went into Tuesday hoping to flip the governor's mansion and defend a vulnerable House delegation. They got neither. NBC News projected Wednesday morning that Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has won re-election, defeating Republican Rep. Andy Biggs in a race that drew national attention as one of the midterm cycle's most closely watched contests.
With 75.3% of expected votes counted, NBC News' live results showed Hobbs at 56.3% to Biggs' 42.0%, with write-in candidate Gertritrude Gonzalez at 0.9%. The network estimated roughly 640,000 ballots remained to be counted at the time of its projection. The Associated Press had not called the race as of Wednesday morning, according to the Times of India's live updates, which showed Hobbs leading 57.38% to 41.04% with 69% reporting.
Hobbs, who first won the governorship in 2022 by less than one percentage point over Republican Kari Lake, will now serve a second term. Biggs, a House Freedom Caucus member and close ally of President Donald Trump, gave up his safe congressional seat for the statewide run. NBC News noted that Biggs "in 2020 spread false claims about the outcome of the presidential election" — a line the network included in its candidate profile.
County-level returns illustrated the familiar urban-rural divide. Biggs carried Cochise County with 52.4% to Hobbs' 45.4%, while Hobbs dominated Apache County with 68.4% to Biggs' 28.7%, according to NBC News' county map.
The governor's race was not the only bad news for Republicans in the Grand Canyon State. NBC News reported that Democrats "are looking to build on their recent gains in this once-solid red seat to flip a handful of seats currently held by Republicans." As of Wednesday morning, only one Republican House seat had been called, with five still uncalled.
In District 1, physician Amish Shah led Republican former NFL kicker Jay Feely 54.6% to 43.5% with 71% of votes in, per NBC News. In District 2, Democrat Jonathan Nez held a narrow 49.5% to 48.8% edge over incumbent Republican Rep. Eli Crane with 78.3% reporting. Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani's race was among those still uncalled.
Democrats also led in the districts they were expected to hold: Yassamin Ansari at 87.8% in District 3 and incumbent Rep. Greg Stanton at 63.7% in District 4, both per NBC News.
The results land as a sharp rebuke to a GOP that controls the White House, Senate and House and had hoped to translate federal momentum into state-level gains. Arizona, a swing state that Trump carried in 2024, was widely expected to be a bellwether for the midterms. Instead, Democrats retained the governorship and remained competitive in congressional races that could determine the size of the Republican majority.
PJ Media summarized the night bluntly: "it was a bad night for Republicans in Arizona." The outlet noted the state had drawn "a good deal of attention and speculation heading into the midterm election, with multiple significant races, including the governorship and House races that could determine the GOP majority."
Immigration was a central issue in the state's contests, according to the Times of India's live coverage, which noted that the issue "put his platform at the centre of the debate" — a reference to the prominent role border policy played in Arizona's races.
It is not yet known when the remaining House races will be called or whether any of the uncalled contests will trigger recounts. Arizona law requires automatic recounts in races decided by less than half a percentage point.
Our Take
Let's be clear about what happened here: Arizona Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Andy Biggs had a national profile, a Trump endorsement and a state that President Trump won in 2024. He lost by double digits. That is not a messaging problem. That is a candidate problem, an operation problem and a turnout problem, and the Arizona GOP needs to look in the mirror rather than blame the usual suspects.
Meanwhile, Democrats are already crowing about a blue wave in the desert. But look at the numbers. Hobbs is an incumbent who barely won in 2022 and still cleared 56%. That tells you Republicans stayed home. The House races show the same pattern — a Marine veteran and a physician running competitive races in districts that should be safely red. If Republicans cannot turn out their base in a state Trump carried, what does that say about the party's ground game heading into 2028?
The border was the issue of the cycle, and Arizonans live it every day. Yet the GOP ran a Freedom Caucus firebrand who spent his political capital on 2020 instead of on the border crisis that Arizonans actually feel. Voters reward candidates who talk about their lives, not about old grievances.
There is time to fix this. The House majority may still survive, and the remaining races are tight. But Arizona Republicans need a serious post-mortem, not another round of excuses. The question for every conservative in the state is simple: are you going to keep losing winnable races, or are you going to build a machine that actually turns out the voters who agree with you?
