A former Biden administration official is projected to knock off two-term Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York's Hudson Valley, delivering Democrats one of their most sought-after House pickups of the 2026 midterms.
The Associated Press projected late Thursday that Cait Conley, a military veteran who served on the White House National Security Council under President Biden, will defeat Lawler in New York's 17th Congressional District, according to Fox News. CBS News also projected Conley as the winner. The district, which sits just north of New York City, was carried by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
The race drew enormous spending from both parties and was widely seen as key to the fight for the House majority. Fox News Power Rankings rated the district "lean Democrat," while the Cook Political Report called it a toss-up.
Sanctuary Laws and the Killing of Sheridan Gorman
The contest turned bitter over sanctuary city laws and illegal immigration. Among Lawler's backers were the parents of Sheridan Gorman, a college student from his district who was killed in Chicago while out with friends. Gorman's accused killer is an illegal immigrant who had previously been arrested for shoplifting but was released without a federal immigration detainer because of Chicago's sanctuary city laws, according to Fox News.
Lawler and Gorman's parents pointed to her killing as proof that Democrat-backed sanctuary laws — active in New York as well — are deadly for Americans. He argued Conley would do nothing to mitigate the effects of illegal immigration.
Conley condemned Gorman's killing and has said she is against illegal immigration, but she has not spoken out against sanctuary laws specifically, Fox News reported.
"Cait Conley defeated two-term Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, winning a highly competitive seat in New York's Hudson Valley region," CBS News projected.
A Midterm Wave
Lawler's loss came amid widespread Republican losses. CBS News projected Democrats will take control of the House in January with a wide majority, on pace to win 256 seats. So far, 42 districts have shifted to Democrats and two have shifted to Republicans, with winners in dozens of races yet to be projected.
GOP Rep. Richard Hudson, chairman of the House GOP campaign arm, lost to Democrat Richard Ojeda in North Carolina's 9th District, CBS News projected. Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker defeated GOP Rep. Mike Turner in Ohio's 10th District. In Florida, GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna narrowly won her race in the 13th District, leading by less than one point with 99% of votes counted.
Rep. Ted Lieu of California announced a bid for Democratic Caucus chairman in a dear colleague letter Thursday. "I am now running for Chair of the Caucus because I want to work with all of you to seize the opportunity the American people just gave us. If we do this right, we can build an enduring majority, one that will win not just the next one or two election cycles, but many more," he said.
The results have prompted soul-searching and a blame game within the GOP as the party looks ahead.
Conley's victory was also reported by other outlets describing her as a lesbian combat veteran.
Our Take
Patriots, this one stings. Mike Lawler stood with the Gorman family. He stood for the simple, decent proposition that a young woman should be able to walk with her friends without being killed by someone who had no business being in this country — and whose release was enabled by the sanctuary policies Democrats cheer. Cait Conley condemns the killing but won't condemn the laws that let it happen. That isn't a position. It's a dodge.
And now she's headed to Congress, part of a wave that has Republicans staring at a 256-seat Democratic majority. The blame game is already heating up. But the question for every Republican who lost or nearly lost: what did you actually run on, and did you fight? The voters who stayed home needed a reason. Sanctuary cities, open borders, and the bodies they leave behind were on the ballot. Too many in the GOP treated it as an abstraction.
Conley now gets a vote on the very policies that killed Sheridan Gorman. New York's 17th will be watching. Will the GOP learn, or will they keep losing the seats that decide everything?
