Deep-red counties that became home to large data centers swung away from Republicans in the 2026 midterms, according to an analysis by the conservative group Humans First obtained by Fox News Digital. The group's chairwoman, Amy Kremer, says the findings confirm a warning she has been sounding for months: voters in GOP strongholds are punishing Republicans over the AI data center buildout, and there are 114 more proposed projects across 92 deep-red counties that could fuel additional backlash.
Humans First examined public election returns and data center project records in 1,540 counties across 16 states, comparing counties hosting large data centers with comparable counties that did not host them. The memo, which the group describes as measuring a "data center penalty," found that host counties shifted an additional 2.2 percentage points toward Democrats relative to non-host counties in the same states. The pattern appeared in 14 of the 16 states and in 25 of the 27 governor and Senate races analyzed.
Restricting the analysis to deep-red counties — those President Donald Trump carried by at least 20 points in 2024 — produced a 2.1-point raw gap between counties hosting large data centers and similar counties without projects. Among deep-red counties with projects still in the proposal stage, the gap was 1.1 percentage points after accounting for past voting patterns, rural or urban status, population size, racial and ethnic makeup and recent voting trends.
The memo found that Republican vote totals fell an additional 1.1% in deep-red host counties compared with comparable counties without large data centers, while Democratic vote totals showed no significant change. Humans First cautioned that the findings show an association rather than proof that data centers caused voters to change their behavior, and that county-level results cannot determine whether Republicans switched their votes or simply stayed home.
"Our analysis looked at how counties with data centers voted and how those counties moved to the left," Kremer told Fox News Digital. "I think this happened for the reason I've been warning conservatives and Republicans about for some time: People engage politically when issues affect them."
The analysis lands as data centers have become a political flashpoint across the country. The Associated Press reported that Democrats campaigning on tighter restrictions on data centers made significant gains in several key gubernatorial races, including Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada and Iowa, and that 32 of the 34 winning gubernatorial candidates in races the AP called supported stronger regulations or restrictions on data centers, with 12 backing outright bans or moratoriums. Fox 32 Chicago reported increasingly heated public meetings in Hobart, Indiana, over proposed data center developments, with some residents removed after voicing opposition. The outlet also reported that Pado AI founder and CEO Wannie Park said residents are questioning whether promised economic benefits are materializing, citing water use and rising utility rates.
President Trump weighed in on the issue in an August 31 post on Truth Social, writing in part that "the only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want data centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let data reign." In the same post, Trump said, "You have to convince your community how great these things. You can't fight it. You have to go with it. And you're going to make a tremendous amount of money. You're going to reduce taxes."
On Fox News, Compass Data Centers CEO Chris Crosby acknowledged that not every developer has done a good job addressing those concerns, saying "their questions are real."
The Humans First memo identified 114 proposed large data center projects across 92 deep-red counties, meaning the local fights that drove the 2026 swing are far from over. For Republicans, the numbers point to a specific vulnerability in their own base: the voters most receptive to an America First message on land, water and local control are the same voters being asked to accept large-scale industrial projects in their backyards, often with tax abatements and without a binding local vote.
Our Take
This is what happens when the party of property rights forgets that property rights are the point. For two years, conservatives have been told the AI data center boom is a national security imperative, an economic windfall, and a fait accompli — and that anyone who asks about the water table or the electric bill is a Luddite standing in the way of the future. Voters in deep-red counties just answered that argument at the ballot box, and the answer was not "yes, please."
Kremer is right about the core mechanism. People vote when the issue is in their front yard. A data center is not an abstraction on a White House fact sheet; it is a strain on the local grid, a draw on the aquifer, a noise source, a traffic problem, and a parcel that used to be farmland. When developers arrive with promises of tax revenue that never quite shows up on the county's books, and when local officials rubber-stamp the project over the objections of the people who live there, the backlash writes itself. The 1.1-point drop in Republican vote share in host counties is the sound of a base that feels ignored by its own side.
The White House deserves credit for wanting American dominance in AI, and Trump is not wrong that these facilities bring jobs and tax revenue. But "let data reign" is not a local-control message, and it is not going to convince a family whose well is running low. The 114 projects still on the drawing board across 92 deep-red counties are a warning shot: Republicans can either get ahead of this by demanding binding community consent, transparent water and power agreements, and real revenue guarantees, or they can keep telling their own voters they are backwards and watch the margins erode in the reddest counties in America.
Patriots, the question is simple. If the GOP cannot defend a homeowner against a foreign-funded developer with a friendly county commission, what exactly is it conserving? The party's own voters just gave their answer. The next round of these projects is already filed.
