ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Democrat Mary Peltola's lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan has widened to 2,517 first-choice votes after Monday's ballot drop, according to the Alaska Division of Elections, but the race remains far from over with tens of thousands of early, absentee and questioned ballots still uncounted.
The new tally, first reported by the Alaska Beacon and the Anchorage Daily News, shows Peltola at 48.6% — 106,321 votes — to Sullivan's 47.5% — 103,804 votes. Peltola's margin grew from the 637-vote edge she held for days after the Nov. 3 election. Monday's update added roughly 5,000 ballots to a count that now exceeds 220,000.
The Alaska race is expected to be one of the last congressional contests decided in the country. The Division of Elections has said a winner may not be known until Nov. 18, with certification expected Nov. 25, per the Anchorage Daily News. Roughly 75–76% of the expected vote is in.
Under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, if no candidate crosses 50%, the lowest finisher is eliminated and voters' second choices are reallocated. With Peltola and Sullivan locked below the threshold, the elimination order matters — and so does a name that has hung over this race from the start.
Two other candidates sit on the ballot: Republican Gerald Heikes of Palmer at 2.2% (4,865 votes) and a second Dan Sullivan — Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from Petersburg — at 1.7% (3,651 votes). The presence of a same-name candidate on the same Senate ballot has been a flashpoint throughout the contest.
"🚨 Peltola is suing Alaska to open the rejected-absentee pile—while a second Dan Sullivan sits on the same Senate ballot. She just admitted she doesn't trust the count." — @nextnews on X
That lawsuit is now part of the story. Late last week, the Peltola campaign filed suit against the state in Anchorage Superior Court seeking data about rejected absentee ballots, the Anchorage Daily News reported. The suit asks the state to open records on ballots that were rejected — a move that could set up a legal fight over which ballots get counted before certification.
Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, cheered Monday's numbers in a statement quoted by Fox News and other outlets.
"After every vote is counted, it is clear that Mary Peltola will be elected Alaska's next United States Senator," Bruce said Tuesday. "Mary won today's votes by a margin of 68-30, reflecting major support in key areas from Anchorage and Chevak. This overwhelming margin further strengthens Mary's path to victory."
The Sullivan campaign has also released a statement describing its own path to victory based on cast vote record data released by the Division of Elections — the same data both campaigns are mining as they position for the ranked-choice tabulation.
Complicating the picture: the national environment. Democrats regained control of both the House and Senate in the Nov. 3 elections, according to the Anchorage Daily News, amid voter anger over the policies of President Donald Trump — including the war with Iran. Alaska's Senate seat is now one of the final pieces on the board.
The Official RCV tabulation is scheduled for later this month. Until then, both sides are watching every tranche of ballots — and the courts.
Our Take
Here's what Alaskans should be asking. Mary Peltola is suing the state over rejected absentee ballots while her campaign insists she's already won. Those two positions don't sit together. If the count is clear, why go to court? The @nextnews post put it plainly: she just admitted she doesn't trust the count.
And then there's the name on the ballot. A second Dan Sullivan — a retired teacher from Petersburg — pulled 3,651 first-choice votes. In a race decided by 2,517, that's not a rounding error. It's bigger than the margin. Alaskans deserve to know how those ballots came to be cast and whether anyone was confused at the voting booth.
Sen. Dan Sullivan is a two-term incumbent and a Marine veteran who has fought for Alaska's energy sector and its military installations. He deserves a count that is transparent, complete, and free of litigation gamesmanship. Every legal ballot should be counted — and every ballot should be legal.
Watch the RCV tabulation. Watch the Anchorage Superior Court. And watch who's trying to change the rules while the votes are still coming in.
