The Republican establishment is cutting and running from Senator John Cornyn as the four-term Texas incumbent finds himself in serious trouble against Trump-backed Attorney General Ken Paxton in their May 26th GOP primary runoff.
One Nation PAC, the political action committee closely tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), has notably stayed on the sidelines with new spending after initially pouring nearly $11 million into propping up Cornyn ahead of the March 3rd primary. The silence is deafening - and tells you everything you need to know about where this race is heading.
Recent polling data shared on social media shows why the establishment is getting nervous. "GQR / Senate Majority PAC polling shows Ken Paxton at 47% and John Cornyn at 42%," according to @DDHQdata, representing a 5-point lead for the Trump-endorsed conservative firebrand.
Interestingly, this poll was "sponsored by House Majority PAC, a Democratic leaning Super PAC," as noted by @PollTracker2024 - meaning even Democrat-aligned pollsters are showing Paxton pulling ahead. When your political opponents are tracking your success, you know you're winning.
MAGA Momentum Building
The writing is on the wall, and conservative activists are already celebrating the inevitable. Political strategist behind the Texas Based Heritage PAC (@foxholestrategy) is so confident in Paxton's victory that he's promising to send out commemorative plaques when Paxton wins, mocking Cornyn's team for "promoting this silly narrative that 'Cornyn won the primary' because he got more votes than Ken Paxton on March 3rd."
This race represents everything wrong with the Republican establishment versus the America First movement that President Trump has built. Cornyn represents the old guard - the same swamp creatures who slow-walked Trump's agenda during his first term. Paxton, meanwhile, has been on the front lines fighting for conservative principles, taking on Big Tech, defending the border, and standing up to federal overreach.
The fact that Thune's PAC is abandoning ship tells you everything about where the smart money thinks this race is going. Patriots in Texas are choosing the fighter over the politician, and the establishment knows it's a losing battle.