AUSTIN, Texas — A brand-new Fox News poll released Thursday shows the unthinkable in Texas: Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by two points, 51-49, in the race for the U.S. Senate. With Election Day just weeks away on Nov. 3, the survey of 1,203 likely Texas voters, conducted Sept. 24-28, paints a picture of a red-state firewall under real strain.
The numbers are within the margin of sampling error, meaning the race is statistically a dead heat. But the internals are a flashing red warning light for Republicans — and a road map for Democrats who believe they can finally end their decades-long statewide losing streak.
Favorability Gap: Paxton Underwater, Talarico Riding High
The most striking figure isn't the head-to-head. It's the personal ratings. Talarico sits at 52% favorable versus 44% unfavorable — a net positive of eight points. Paxton is underwater by 18 points, with just 40% viewing him favorably and 58% unfavorably, according to the Fox News poll.
That disparity is driven in part by Republicans themselves. As Fox News reported, Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats are to view Talarico unfavorably (5%).
In other words, the opposition to Paxton isn't just coming from the other side. It's coming from within his own party.
The Enthusiasm Gap Is Real — and It's Hurting the GOP
Republicans have a turnout problem, and the poll lays it bare. More MAGA Republicans say they are extremely interested in the midterms (64%) compared to non-MAGA Republicans (50%). When it comes to being "certain" they will vote, the gap widens: 76% of MAGA Republicans versus 65% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, are unified. Two-thirds of both DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested, and nearly three-quarters of both groups say they are certain to vote.
That asymmetry is compounded by crossover voting. Eight percent of self-identified Republicans say they prefer Democrats to control the Senate, compared to just 1% of Democrats who want the GOP in charge. Non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%).
And here's the number that should have every Texas Republican strategist reaching for the antacids: 20% of likely voters who backed incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary now say they're backing Talarico, according to the Fox News poll. The brutal primary season, it seems, left scars that haven't healed.
Where Each Candidate Wins
Talarico's coalition is broad. He leads among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under 35 (62%). He also holds a commanding 19-point lead among voters who say the economy is their top issue and an 18-point edge among those focused on artificial intelligence.
Paxton's base remains solid but narrower: white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and seniors 65 and older (55%). He holds a 20-point lead among voters who cite immigration as their top concern.
Among the larger sample of registered voters, Talarico's lead widens to seven points — just outside the margin of error. That's up from a three-point edge in July, according to Fox News.
Overall, Texas likely voters are split on Senate control: 49% want Democrats in charge, 50% want Republicans. One-point margin. In Texas.
What It Means
Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. But this poll adds to growing evidence — as AOL noted — that the Lone Star State could play a decisive role in the fight for Senate control in November.
For the GOP, the path forward is turnout. If non-MAGA Republicans stay home or defect, and if Cornyn primary voters follow through on their protest, Paxton's ceiling may be lower than the 49% this poll gives him. For Democrats, the challenge is converting enthusiasm into actual votes across a state that hasn't gone blue in a presidential year since 1976.
The poll surveyed likely voters, so it already factors in some likelihood of turnout. But with weeks to go, both sides will be pouring money, ads and surrogates into the state.
President Trump's centrality to the race is another variable: Talarico holds a six-point edge among voters who say Trump will be a central factor in their vote, the Fox News poll found. In a state Trump won comfortably twice, that's a notable data point.
Our Take
Patriots, this is the wake-up call Texas Republicans needed — and it may have arrived too late.
Ken Paxton is a fighter. He's been through the fire, taken on the establishment, and won. But this poll isn't about whether Paxton is conservative enough. It's about whether he can consolidate the party behind him after a bruising primary that clearly left a chunk of Cornyn voters bitter. Twenty percent defection isn't a scratch — it's a hemorrhage.
And the enthusiasm gap? That's on every Republican who thinks sitting this one out is an option. Non-MAGA Republicans are telling pollsters they're not excited. That's how you hand a Senate seat to a Democrat in a state that hasn't voted blue statewide in three decades.
James Talarico is a savvy operator. He's pitching himself as the reasonable alternative while Paxton absorbs incoming from the left and the Never-Trump right. Don't underestimate him.
The DSA and non-DSA Democrats are unified. They're voting. They're enthusiastic. Meanwhile, Republicans are arguing among themselves.
Texas, this is not a drill. If you want border security, if you want lower taxes, if you want America First policies in the Senate, you need to show up. The poll says 51-49. That's within the margin of error. That means every single vote counts.
Are you going to let the Lone Star State turn blue because you stayed home? Or are you going to fight for it?
Nov. 3. Be there.
