DHL Group raised its full-year 2026 profit forecast, saying it now expects earnings before interest and taxes to exceed seven billion euros, or about seven point eight billion dollars, up from an earlier outlook of seven point three billion dollars from core operations.
The German logistics giant pointed to continued earnings strength at its express division and expectations of a robust peak shipping season that coincides with holiday sales, according to FreightWaves, which reported the revised guidance. The company also lifted its full-year projection for free cash flow to three point six billion dollars from three point three seven billion dollars.
Capital expenditures are expected to rise to about four billion dollars, up from a range of about three point four billion to three point seven billion dollars, as DHL invests in projects for further growth. The company said last week, for example, that it plans to invest four hundred fifty million dollars to expand capabilities in Central and Eastern Europe by 2030.
Group earnings before interest and taxes during the third quarter reached one point nine two billion dollars, up sixteen percent year over year and above the consensus estimate among analysts. DHL Express led the way, with adjusted operating profit increasing forty-nine point five percent to one point one six billion dollars on the strength of higher yield, continued cost efficiencies and what the company described as a more disciplined approach toward accepting heavy airfreight, which commands higher rates, over lightweight shipments transported by the company's in-house airline.
Heavyweight air cargo has been a point of emphasis for the company this year, and a tight air freight market also boosted results.
DHL Global Forwarding generated earnings before interest and taxes of two hundred ninety-two million dollars, up a third from the prior year, excluding small one-time effects in 2025. Earnings at DHL Supply Chain, the contract logistics unit, increased seven point nine percent to three hundred thirty-seven million dollars on an adjusted basis.
DHL eCommerce had adjusted operating profit of fifty-six point two million dollars, down from one hundred ninety-eight million dollars in the third quarter of 2025. The prior year benefited from a one-time gain of one hundred thirty-eight point two million dollars.
The results drew attention from trade and logistics outlets tracking the company's guidance. CEP Research reported that DHL raised its full-year earnings forecast for the second time this year after the strong third quarter, driven by surging DHL Express profits, higher international shipment weights and improving demand across its global logistics businesses. Air Cargo News reported that the company now expects to post earnings before interest and taxes for the year of seven billion euros, compared with its previous guidance.
The full third-quarter report is scheduled for November 5, 2026. DHL shares traded slightly higher in pre-market activity following the guidance increase, according to market commentary cited in coverage of the announcement.
The revised outlook lands as the logistics industry heads into the holiday shipping window, a period when parcel volumes typically climb and carriers compete for capacity. DHL's express division, which handles time-sensitive international shipments, has been the primary profit driver for the group in the third quarter, according to FreightWaves.
The company's decision to favor heavier airfreight shipments reflects a calculation about where margins are strongest in a market where capacity remains tight. Heavyweight cargo commands higher rates than the lightweight parcels moved through the company's own airline network, and DHL has signaled that discipline in accepting lighter shipments is part of its strategy this year.
The guidance increase marks the second time DHL has raised its full-year outlook in 2026. The company's earlier projection of seven point three billion dollars in earnings from core operations has now been superseded by the expectation of more than seven billion euros, a figure that translates to roughly seven point eight billion dollars.
Next News Network could not independently verify the figures and projections described in the company's guidance and the subsequent reporting on it.
The logistics sector has been closely watched this year for signs of consumer demand and freight capacity. DHL's results suggest that at least one major carrier is seeing strength in the express and forwarding segments even as its eCommerce unit posted a decline, albeit against a prior-year quarter that included a one-time gain.
The company's investment plans, including the Central and Eastern Europe expansion announced last week, signal that DHL intends to keep spending on growth projects even as it raises its free cash flow projection. Capital expenditures are now expected to reach about four billion dollars, up from the earlier range.
Our Take
DHL's raised guidance is a useful counterpoint to the gloom that has hung over parts of the freight economy this year. The express division's nearly fifty percent operating profit growth is not a rounding error, and the company's willingness to spend more on capital projects while also lifting its cash flow forecast suggests management sees durable demand rather than a one-quarter blip. The eCommerce unit's decline deserves watching, but the prior-year comparison was distorted by a one-time gain, and the express and forwarding businesses are carrying the load. For American shippers and carriers heading into peak season, the signal from one of the world's largest logistics operators is that capacity and pricing discipline still matter more than volume alone. The second guidance increase of the year is the kind of move that gets noticed on both sides of the Atlantic.
