The U.S. economy added 165,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, nearly three times the 59,000 gain forecasters expected, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data reported by CNBC Economy. Economists had expected unemployment to hold steady at 4.2%.
The payrolls number landed Wednesday as a counterweight to a separate inflation report released Tuesday, which showed consumer prices rising 0.4% in October—ahead of the 0.3% consensus, per ABC7 New York and Newsweek. The October CPI report did not include an annual inflation rate because the BLS did not publish an October 2025 inflation report during the government shutdown.
Next News Network highlighted the gap between the forecast and the result in a post on X: "BLS: 165,000 jobs. Unemployment 4.1%. Forecasters predicted 59K—Trump's economy tripled it. Kevin Hassett: job market hitting on all cylinders."
The report is the first monthly payrolls reading since the midterm elections, in which Democrats won both the House and Senate, according to Newsweek. It also lands before the Federal Reserve's December meeting; the central bank left rates steady in late October after a quarter-point hike in September, and analysts are weighing whether a strong labor market keeps another hike on the table. Seeking Alpha framed its coverage around that question: "Resilience Keeps December Hike On The Table."
Inflation remains the pressure point. Prices rose 3.7% over the year ending in September, the most recent month for which annual data is available, per ABC7 New York—more than a percentage point above the Fed's 2% target. The New York Times reported that its own calculation showed prices up around 4% year-over-year in October, a figure it produced because the official comparison was unavailable.
Energy has driven much of the recent inflation. Gasoline prices jumped more than 9% in September from August and accounted for more than half of that month's overall price increase, ABC7 New York reported, citing BLS data. The outlet attributed elevated fuel costs in part to the Iran war, which it said drove gasoline prices up and pushed annual inflation to a three-year high in the spring. A cooldown in oil prices since the midterms has pushed the national average below $4 a gallon as of Monday, GasBuddy data showed, though that relief was not reflected in the October report.
Shelter costs rose 0.3% in October and accounted for more than 30% of the overall monthly increase, while the energy index rose 0.7%, cooling from a 5.2% jump in September, according to ABC7 New York. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in at 0.3%—in line with September but slightly above the 0.2% forecast, Newsweek reported.
Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note shared ahead of the CPI release that "markets are benefiting from an improvement in the geopolitical outlook, but the underlying macroeconomic and corporate risks remain unresolved," adding that "lower energy prices could help ease inflation expectations, but the Fed will need evidence of broader disinflation before reconsidering its policy stance."
For American workers, the October report is a mixed ledger: more hiring and a lower unemployment rate, set against prices that are still climbing faster than the Fed wants. Whether the job gains hold through the winter—and whether the Fed reads them as a reason to hike again in December—is the next test.
Our Take
Here is the number the legacy media will bury under a paragraph about gas prices: 165,000 jobs against a 59,000 forecast. Forecasters missed by a factor of nearly three, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. That is not a lucky bounce—that is an economy with its foot on the gas, and it happened on this administration's watch.
Are prices still too high? Yes. Nobody at this outlet is going to pretend otherwise, and the Fed's 2% target is still more than a point away. But notice the pattern the establishment press keeps ignoring: energy costs are coming down, gas is under $4, and the job market is absorbing workers while the central bank tightens. The same outlets that spent years telling you the sky was falling are now reduced to leading with a 0.4% monthly CPI bump to avoid printing the payrolls headline.
Patriots, watch what the Fed does in December. If policymakers hike into a labor market this strong and choke it, remember who told you the economy was working. The numbers are working. The question is whether the people running the money supply will let them.
