South Carolina's Senate race is now a toss-up, and President Donald Trump is heading to the Palmetto State to save it.
Fox News Power Rankings moved the contest from lean Republican to toss-up Wednesday, less than a week before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, after polling showed Sen. Darline Graham tied with Democrat Annie Andrews at an even 48% apiece. Fox News announced the shift on X, posting that "new polling has Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48%-48%, as President Trump heads to South Carolina today."
The numbers come from a Siena Research Institute survey conducted in partnership with The New York Times, which found 3% of respondents undecided and less than 1% backing a third candidate. Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was appointed to the seat in July by Gov. Henry McMaster after her brother's death on July 11 and is seeking a full six-year term.
Trump Returns to the Upstate
Trump's Wednesday rally targets the Upstate region — the same territory where Graham underperformed in her August primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, according to Fox News. The president's endorsement carried Graham through that runoff, but the general election has proven a harder climb.
The Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans' main campaign arm, dropped $5 million into South Carolina in early October after spending nothing on the race beforehand, the Daily Caller reported — a clear signal national Republicans saw the seat slipping. RealClearPolling had Graham ahead by an average of 2.4 points as of Thursday, but the newest survey shows that edge gone.
The race is one of several tightening contests that will decide the Senate majority. Fox News' Power Rankings put the Senate itself at a toss-up with six states to decide control, noting Democrats could reach 54 seats on a strong night while Republicans could hold on with up to 52. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News that Ohio is "ground zero" for the midterms while campaigning Tuesday with Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who trailed former Sen. Sherrod Brown 47%-44% in a Suffolk University poll — within the margin of error.
Cracks in the Graham Campaign
Graham's campaign has shown strain beyond the polling. Norman accused Trump of spending millions "spreading false narratives about why Darline Graham is qualified to be elected to the U.S. Senate," according to Fox News, and said he would not campaign with her in the final week before Election Day. During an Aug. 19 primary debate, Graham stumbled through a question from Newsmax host Greta Van Susteren on whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are national security issues for the United States.
South Carolina Freedom Conference Chairman Jordan Pace told the Daily Caller on Aug. 11 that many South Carolina Republicans were caught off guard when Graham entered the race and that the party did not support her serving a full term.
Andrews, the Democrat, has kept the race close in a state Trump carried comfortably in 2024. Fox News' rankings analysis described two electorates at work this cycle: one frustrated with Trump and ready to reject Republicans, including growing numbers of independent, rural and Hispanic voters, and another still wavering on the GOP but unwilling to hand Democrats the Senate outright. South Carolina, per Fox, sits where those two forces collide.
The Real American Voice posted on X that Trump is running seven rallies in seven states in seven days, with Wednesday's stop in South Carolina followed by Florida and Kansas. "TODAY: Trump rallies for Senate candidate Darlene Graham," the post read.
Our Take
Here's what the establishment won't say out loud: this seat should never have been in play. South Carolina is Trump country, and the fact that a New York Times poll has a Republican incumbent tied with a Democrat six days out is a flashing red light — not just for Graham, but for every consultant who told you the Senate was safe.
But notice who is actually fighting for it. Trump is flying to the Upstate while Ralph Norman sulks on the sidelines and party bosses in D.C. finally cut a check in October after months of pretending everything was fine. The grassroots have been told for years that the party has their back. This race is the test of whether the party has its own.
The Senate majority runs through states Trump won by double digits. If Republicans show up, the climb for the Left is steep — that's Fox's own analysis, not ours. If they stay home because the GOP treated this seat like an afterthought until the polls turned, Democrats get within striking distance of the majority and every America First priority dies in committee.
Patriots, the rally is Wednesday. The polls open Tuesday. What happens in between is on you.
