ANCHORAGE — Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola has now claimed victory in Alaska's U.S. Senate race twice, and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is still waiting on a final count nearly three weeks after Election Day.
Peltola widened her lead over the two-term incumbent in the latest ballot dump, moving ahead by nearly four percentage points — more than 10,000 votes — according to the Washington Examiner. The Associated Press reports roughly 98% of votes are counted, but the race remains uncalled. Neither candidate has cleared the 50% threshold of first-choice votes, meaning the contest will almost certainly be decided next week by ranked-choice tabulation, scheduled for Nov. 18 after the deadline for overseas mailed ballots.
According to the New York Times, Peltola held 49.8% to Sullivan's roughly 46% in incomplete results as of Friday night, and the outlet's analysis projected she is on track to prevail. NBC News' Decision Desk went further, characterizing Peltola as "likely" to win — a designation indicating at least 95% confidence — while noting Alaska is the only remaining 2026 Senate contest without a projection. Alaska's Division of Elections tallied an additional 4,290 ballots Saturday, with Friday's update adding roughly 22,500 ballots to the total, per Alaska Public Media.
The stakes extend well beyond one seat. As the Times reported, a Peltola win would make her the first Indigenous Alaskan elected to the U.S. Senate and would pad the Democratic caucus to 56 members. A Sullivan hold would cap Democrats at 55. The race is the lone Senate battle still uncalled in a midterm cycle the Times described as featuring sweeping Democratic victories — a result that has handed the Left control of the chamber and, with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins winning the governor's race Friday evening with 50.8% — more than his three Republican rivals combined, per the AP — a firmer grip on Alaska state government as well.
Sullivan, a former Alaska attorney general, has built his Senate reputation on resource development and an expanded military and Coast Guard presence in the North, and he has been a steadfast Trump ally — the president flew to Wasilla last month to rally for him. President Trump's second-term agenda of energy dominance and a strengthened northern defense posture runs directly through the committee seats Sullivan has held.
The contest was roiled in its final days by allegations first reported in the New York Times that Peltola's team was involved in recruiting a third candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, to siphon votes from the incumbent. Those allegations remain disputed, and their effect on the final tally is not yet known.
Social media coverage of the race has tracked the counting closely. An Instagram post indexed this week headlined the margin as Peltola leading Sullivan 60% to 40% — a figure that does not match the official tally and appears to reflect a projection rather than a counted result. Other posts documented Peltola's entry into the race and her general-election matchup against Sullivan.
In Alaska's U.S. House race, Rep. Nick Begich holds 47.8% with independent Bill Hill, who carries the Democratic endorsement, at 41.7%, per Alaska Public Media — another contest headed for ranked-choice reallocation. Alaskans also rejected Ballot Measure 2, leaving the state's ranked-choice system in place for now.
What happens Nov. 18 is mechanical: the Division of Elections eliminates the last-place candidate and reallocates those ballots to voters' second choices. What it means is simpler. Either Republicans keep a seat they have held for twelve years, or Democrats pick up a 56th vote in a chamber where every vote will matter against a second-term Trump administration.
Our Take
Two victory laps before a single ranked-choice ballot has been reallocated tells you what the Peltola campaign thinks of the process: that the outcome is a formality and the counting is theater. Maybe it is. But Alaskans deserve better than a three-week drip of ballots that lets one side declare victory, then declare it again, while an incumbent senator's fate hangs on a tabulation date set by statute.
The ranked-choice system that decided this race was preserved by voters on the same ballot, and its defenders call it fair. Fine. Then count faster. New York and California have made slow counts a partisan weapon, and Alaska should not join them. Sullivan has not conceded, and he should not — not until every overseas ballot is in and every second-choice allocation is run.
For patriots watching a blue wave wash over the Last Frontier, the lesson is uncomfortable but clear: Alaska's Senate seat was not lost on Election Day. It is being lost one ballot dump at a time, and Republicans who spent the year fighting national battles did not spend enough of them making sure Alaskans' ballots were counted when it mattered. Watch Nov. 18.
