Don’t mistake the changes in American political geography as the Democrats solidifying their power. Recent shifts in major electoral regions suggest a different story. Trump’s uncanny ability to redraw voting maps could grind the Democrat’s momentum to a halt in the upcoming election.
In 2016, Trump brought rust belt states Michigan and Pennsylvania into the Republican arena for the first time since the ‘80s, proving the old map was outdated. Yet, fast forward to 2020 and these same states put Biden in the hot seat. Trump’s second face-off saw the unexpected desertion of Republican-run Arizona and Georgia to the Democrats. With Trump now showing strong polls in both the Rust and Sun Belt, it makes you wonder: What kind of map will he paint this time?
There’s a lot to be excited about on the conservative front. Trump is 5% ahead in Arizona, according to a recent CBS News poll. This lines up with him leading by 6% a week prior in a New York Times/Siena poll. What’s more thrilling, that same poll shows Trump 13 points ahead in Nevada, a state that hasn’t chosen a Republican for president since 2004.
We can’t forget about Georgia either. Not a single poll is favoring the Democrats since the rematch between Trump and Biden was announced. After an unpleasant stretch of international crises and homefront inflation under Biden, perhaps voters are longing for the Trump era?
Biden isn’t helping his cause either, especially in the Sun Belt region, with two significant weak spots. One, the incumbent can’t escape the disaster on the border with the lack of control by his administration on immigration. This is especially felt in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, where voters are pleading for action.
Second, diversity isn’t always the Democrats’ friend. Latino and Black voters seem to be losing faith in Biden, as indicated by NYT/Siena polls. Trump is still not standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Biden for Black voters, but the alarm bells should be ringing for the Democrats with Biden’s waning support.
Biden’s concerns are apparent with recent appearances before Black audiences trying to keep his voter-base intact. Even then, his actions caused a stir, such as his stance on the Israel conflict resulting in walkouts during his speech at the historically Black Morehouse College, showing the Democratic coalition isn’t as firm as it appears.
But, if Trump wants to return to the White House, he needs more than Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. His eye should be on those Rust Belt states, where the dominantly white population could make or break his chance at victory. According to Pew Research, Biden managed to sway support from suburban white voters and those without college degrees in 2020, costing Trump his second term.
Trump’s strategy must be to regain the Rust Belt states along with white voters, while making inroads on the Sun Belt and with Black and Hispanic voters. A redrawing of the 2016 map is his sure shot towards victory.
In conclusion, Trump’s remarkable ability to redraw electoral maps could upset the political balance. With Biden stumbling, Trump’s counter-advancement seems more feasible, providing a compelling argument for a reshuffling of America’s political scenario.
